January 03, 2022
Meanwhile: North of the Black Sea
I don't think people are fully appreciating how serious this Ukraine mess is getting.
Russia has been massing troops on the Russian and Belarusian borders of Ukraine for a few weeks and is currently running fallout drills, establishing national protocols for burying mass numbers of people and informing the public of new excavation standards for mass graves that will be containing radioactive corpses. In an effort to establish a dialog and clarify matters, the Russian government is likening current events to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
On the other side of the equation, The U.S.A., France, Germany, and the U.K. have re-affirmed their support for the Ukraines independence and territorial integrity. This is a long-standing agreement going back to the Budapest Accords of the early 90s that convinced Ukraine to give up it's nuclear weapons, which it had inherited from the breakup of the U.S.S.R.
Russia is on balance, obviously in the wrong here, but Ukraine, while it has done nothing to warrant the egregious violations of its sovereignty that it has endured, IS a corrupt country that literally has NAZIs sitting in it's parliament.
This is a mess and I don't think anybody is fully appreciating the resolve of the other.
Ukraine is the heartland of Russian civilization and culture, which began with the Russ of Kiev. Russians, especially nationalists like Putin have an intense attachment to Ukraine. On the Ukrainian side, that bridge was burnt, with prejudice, by the Holodomor. So terrible were the Russian depredations of the Ukrainians that the Ukrainians in WW2 welcomed the fricking NAZIs in as liberators...it was so bad in the Ukraine that the NAZIs were a step up. This is why there are still NAZIs in Ukrainian politics.
The Russians have a huge amount to gain by an adventure in the Ukraine. Oil, a strategic buffer zone, the richest soil in the world and prestige foreign and domestic as well as the strong psychological need to reintegrate what they see as their prodigal brethren. They have taken the measure of the U.S. in the aftermath of the Afghanistan debacle and seem to have decided that there is no better time to do this, as they will NEVER have such diffident leadership in the US again.
Furthermore, Putin's position may not be as secure as is generally supposed. He is an autocrat who is ultimately answerable to the Russian Oligarchs and his position is dependent on appearing strong, both to them and the Russian people.
For its part, the U.S. in particular, after the Afganistan fiasco, feels it cannot back down again. Democrat talk a good game of being anti-war when not in office, but the only Democratic presidents that are not considered mediocre or outright failures are those that waged wars. They have a history of using the immense powers conferred on the government by war to consolidate their power by rounding up their political opposition and the only time this backfired on them meaningfully was in the aftermath of World War One. Plagued by multiple calamities, most of which are the products of their own ineptitude, the current administration needs a foreign policy victory, or, perhaps a short, victorious war. They see Russia as a broke corrupt nation that is a husk of its former self with a military that NATO even in its current military state could take in a conventional war. That assessment is not, strictly speaking, wrong, but the Russians most likely have some nasty surprises in store nevertheless. In any event the Russians, who have a vast tactical nuclear arsenal have made it clear that any intervention by western powers past the eastern border of Poland will be met with nuclear fires.
The U.S. and other Western powers seem to have dismissed tactical nukes as a real thing since about 1992. While Strategic forces of the U.S. and Russia, are basically at parity, The Russians have a vast advantage in low yield, short range weapons intended for battlefield use. All those points about Russia being a declining power mean that the equalizing effect of tactical nukes is very tempting, and indeed the Russians have made no secret of their willingness to use weapons in a battlefield situation to "calm things down".
The current administration, so heavy with theoreticians and academics likely can't really get their heads around this as a real thing. If the Russians pop a nuke and evaporate a number of NATO troops the reaction is not likely to be measured. Even if President Biden is removed by the 25th amendment, the Vice President is a quite incompetent courtesan who exhibits all the most toxic girl-boss behaviors of a particularly entitled upper middle-class debutante.
In any event, there are few things more dangerous than scared, insecure leaders who are backed into a corner, and whose political future depends on appearing tough.
Also: The Budapest Accords are a linchpin of nuclear nonproliferation. Ukraine gave up its nukes with the guarantee that it did not need them anymore. It has come to rue that decision. Other countries with nuclear capability, but no nuclear weapons are watching this situation closely. The EU and other NATO members, particularly France, (which, despite their reputation post WW2 are a world power that takes international norms VERY seriously) may well see the Budapest Accords as THE line in the sand, for if that commitment is abandoned, then Western (not just US) promises and guarantees will carry NO weight and for many countries in 'dangerous neighborhoods', not having high energy weapons will seem foolish.
The point is that the Russians can quite possibly push too far, underestimating what the west sees as being the true states, and the west is likely to not recognize the seriousness of the Russian resolve and willingness to 'go to the next level'.
I have a degree in History, but foreign policy is outside my bailiwick.
Thus, I have some questions going forward:
How binding ARE the Budapest Accords?
What is the press coverage and public attitude towards this mess REALLY like in Russia. I don't speak Russian, Ukrainian, or Belarusian nor do I read Cyrillic so I'm taking the word of western news outlets, which is rarely a path to wisdom.
How many "advisors" does the U.S. and other NATO countries have in the Ukraine?
It seems consequential that the FINNISH politicians of all people are talking about joining NATO. How serious IS this talk, is it just smack talk or are the Finns seriously contemplating abandoning their position of neutrality that has existed since 1945?
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Meanwhile: On Twitch
A while back, Moriko, an ESL streamer best known as the completely apolitical fruit-bat from Bat at Video Games had a bunch of people get together a bit ago to stage an intervention on her internet jargon .
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Pickamee's on Twitch now! Steam burns are imminent.
This may have worrying implications for certain IRL Twitch streamers.
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January 02, 2022
The New Year
...was starting off with a decidedly unwelcome continuation of trends from 2021..... what with the area around Boulder County Colorado somehow burning down...during a blizzard.
However, now that we enter day two of 2020-Two, there is some hope that things might be turning around.
Wonderduck is, it seems, alive!
He's still in the hospital, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Go welcome him back in the comments please!
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I Haven't Seen a Lot About This...
...but it looks to be really bad in Colorado right now.
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January 01, 2022
It's 2022
At least here on the Eastern Seaboard of North America
Art by Nardack
more...
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December 31, 2021
2021: Year in Review
2020 won.
Violence in the streets, America in ignominious retreat on the international stage, shortages, inflation, and me learning to talk, use a fork, and tie my shoes.
It was just the 1970's but all in one year.
But no disco.
I'm completely done with this foetid abortion of a year, but Pixy has gone into rather more detail, while looking at the year from a tech perspective.
He also has disco.
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Watching V-Tubers
I learned that it's already my birthday in Timor Leste.
Huh.
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December 29, 2021
It Begins
Elon Musk, the ad-Astra Afrikans-American who has, in the last few years, revolutionized access to space, seems to have dropped one too many red pills.
Devon Delvechio recently did the above video on Musk's changing perspective in the eyes of the hip set but today came a rather pointed rebuke of the man by...the FAA and EPA.
It seems that the FAA has delayed their approval of Musks new spaceship launch until at least March pending an environmental review. Note that the whole point of the rocket is to get completely out of the environment.
Musk has, in the last few years gone from the darling of the Ted-Talk left to something of an annoyance at best. His recent Twitter-feud with Senator Warren and his appearance on the Babylon Bee of all places seems to have cemented his transition in their eyes.
Musk was, for many years, an enthusiastic repeater of leftie platitudes as he took govt. subsidies for electric and solar endeavors during the Obama years. It was this lack of offensiveness from the lefts point of view that likely enabled his much more consequential rocketry project to proceed unnoticed and unmolested.
I suspect that the environmental review delay is a sort of shot across the bow, telling the billionaire to "get back in line". These people, especially those in the Biden Administration, are vindictive enough that they'll strangle a new industry in the crib just to spite Musk.
Worse, it's quite possible that Musks space projects are themselves a primary target. Starlink itself bypasses many donors to the DNC, Solar power satellites could be a big step in curbing emissions...without paying the grifters that fly private jets to conferences to lecture poor people on their carbon footprint.
Musk is an impressive genius but his brilliance is partly a result of his autism, which ill prepares him for the kind of Byzantine emotional maneuvering that is necessary when dealing with our ruling class. Whether this change in opinion of him by the powers that be is something he can survive is something I'll be watching with not a little apprehension.
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December 24, 2021
A Pyrrhic But Satisfying Victory
Art by Itou: Who truly seems to understand what it's like to work for U.P.S. at Christmas.
more...
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December 22, 2021
This WAS Interesting
In lieu of actual content, here is a really interesting video from Rudyard.
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Uh....Yeah
I've got to watch this whole thing after work Friday. Hopefully there isn't something NSFW like catgirl pr0n in the middle of it. What I've seen is Epic.
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Wonderduck Status
I'm not at liberty to discuss any specifics, but, to my considerable relief, I was able to talk to Wonderduck by phone two days ago.
He's still in the hospital, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. I suspect he will post something before the week is out.
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The Brickmuppet is AWAKE
Art by Shidori225
more...
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December 13, 2021
Dev Watched Santa Inc. So We Don't Have To.
Interestingly, (tragically) Dev watched the WHOLE thing.
This is a much more interesting and fair review of this dumpster fire than most.
It also makes clear that this is an even bigger, and in some ways more disturbing fiasco than is widely reported.
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Holiday Banality.
Narmaya in a holiday mood by Homidere.
more...
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December 08, 2021
A Wide-Ranging Discussion on Various Issues of the Day
Here's the shorter version:
Wow.
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December 05, 2021
Wait...What!?
Hopefully, this story is unrelated.
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December 03, 2021
Escalation Avoided
In two separate incidents, NATO and Russian ships have been noted doing very provocative acts... the Russians sending a warship to Denmark in a gross overreaction to the seizure of a Russian merchant vessel and a U.K. and Dutch ship practically sailing into Sevastopol uninvited.
In both cases the incidents never happened, but there was some alarm at the time as the international AIS database showed them happening in real time.
Note too that China has, ostensibly as a part of a CHICOM privacy law(?), severely restricted the use of AIS data in it's merchant fleet. That's a separate and potential troubling development.
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An Important Note for Fan Artists who Follow Genshin Impact
Klee and Paimon are not for lewding.
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November 29, 2021
"Tapping Noises" Is This thing On?
Banality follows below fold...
more...
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